Is the housing market frozen? Not at the top of South Florida, where MIAMI REALTORS reports $10 million and over sales up 40% year to date through September, and not in Manhattan, in Nile's view. Nile Lundgren, founder of the Lundgren Team at SERHANT., with $550M in sales, is a real estate agent licensed in New York and Florida.
If you are weighing a purchase or a sale in New York or Florida, you can reach Nile Lundgren and the Lundgren Team at SERHANT. here.
Is the housing market frozen in Manhattan?
Not in Nile Lundgren's view. He reads Manhattan as softer, not frozen, and he starts with supply.
In a message he wrote on October 19, 2026, Nile put it this way: "In Manhattan, inventory is scarce." On why owners are not rushing to list, in his words: "A lot of people have great rates. Why would they sell?"
On who is at the table, in his words: "it's wealthy person negotiating against wealthy person."
These are Nile's views, not statistics.
What is happening at the top of the South Florida market?
MIAMI REALTORS reports that the top of South Florida is on pace for a record: closed sales of $10 million and over homes are up 40% year to date through September 2026, to 407 sales.
MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld Chief Economist Gay Cororaton writes that, at the current pace, those sales are poised to be the highest ever. The full-year record is 436 sales, set in 2021. The report covers five counties: Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie.
These are counts of closed sales, not prices. A record pace in sales does not tell you what any one home is worth.
Source: MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld, Oct 19, 2026
For a wider look at luxury real estate in New York, the Hamptons and South Florida, see Luxury Real Estate Accelerates Across New York, the Hamptons, and South Florida.
If you are shopping in South Florida, you can browse current Miami homes for sale with the Lundgren Team at SERHANT.
Does the strength at the top carry down to every price point?
No. In the same report, MIAMI REALTORS says overall South Florida closed sales fell 5% year over year in September 2026, the second straight monthly decline.
That is the split to understand. The $10 million and over segment is running toward a record, according to MIAMI REALTORS, while the market as a whole is slowing. A strong top end does not mean every home in South Florida will sell the same way.
On Florida, in Nile's words: "the Florida condo market is slow right now."
Why does Nile Lundgren say the market is softer, not frozen?
Because, in his view, deals are still being negotiated, just on softer terms.
On rates, in his words: "I'd say that interest rates affect a lot of markets that don't necessarily affect New York City."
On what that means for the people at the table, in his words: "I feel like the market is softer, but you have to get out there and make a lot of offers."
And on sellers, in his words: "they're gonna have to take a little bit less."
Those are Nile's views from a message he wrote on October 19, 2026, not statistics.
What should buyers and sellers do in a market that is softer but not frozen?
Buyers should be ready to act, and sellers should price for the buyers who are actually in the market.
For buyers: have proof of funds and your financing plan ready before you tour, and be prepared to make more than one offer. In Nile's words, "you have to get out there and make a lot of offers."
For sellers: price against the homes that truly compete with yours today, not against a national headline in either direction. A record pace at the very top does not lift every price point, and in Nile's view sellers may "have to take a little bit less."
For anyone moving between New York and Florida: read each market on its own terms. Nile's Manhattan read and South Florida's sales data are separate stories.
For what separates a luxury listing that sells from one that sits, see How do you market a luxury home?
FAQ
Do mortgage rates matter at the top of the South Florida market?
Less than in the rest of the market, according to MIAMI REALTORS, which says cash sales account for over half of the million-dollar segment and that this makes these buyers less vulnerable to rising mortgage rates.
Do closed sales show what buyers are doing today?
Not exactly. A closing records a contract that was signed weeks or months before, so closed sales describe the recent past.
Where does this data come from?
The South Florida figures are from MIAMI REALTORS + RWorld and cover Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie counties. Nile's Manhattan views come from his own message of October 19, 2026.
How do I contact Nile Lundgren about buying or selling in Manhattan or South Florida?
Call (917) 453-4526 or use the contact page at nilelundgren.com/contact.
Nile Lundgren, founder of the Lundgren Team at SERHANT., with $550M in sales. Real estate agent licensed in New York and Florida. Cast member of Netflix's Owning Manhattan.
Call (917) 453-4526 or contact the Lundgren Team at SERHANT. at https://nilelundgren.com/contact
Find us: Lundgren Team at SERHANT. on Google Maps
