Signed contracts above $10 million in Manhattan more than doubled year over year.
That's not a blip. That's a structural shift in where demand is concentrating, and it's been building all year.
The Numbers Are Unambiguous
Contracts between $10 million and $20 million are up more than 100% year over year.
Contracts above $4 million have increased more than 10% across the board.
Luxury condominiums are averaging $3,976 per square foot, a 35% increase from a year ago.
Even the broader market continues to strengthen. Manhattan condominiums now average $2,431 per square foot, up 14.1% year over year.
This is not a market where buyers have pricing power.
The buyers who sat out 2023 and 2024 waiting for interest rates to fall have returned—and they're competing against one another.
Supply Is the Real Driver
Only 81 new development units launched during the first quarter of 2026.
That's roughly 75% below the ten-year first-quarter average.
The development pipeline that slowed when financing became more expensive hasn't recovered. Entitlements still take years. Construction costs remain elevated. New inventory simply isn't arriving fast enough to satisfy existing demand.
If you're waiting for prices to soften, you're waiting for two things to happen simultaneously: supply to increase and demand to decline.
Right now, neither is happening.
The Ultra-Wealthy Are Betting on Manhattan
The recent wave of mega-compounds in the West Village has become one of the clearest indicators of long-term confidence in New York City.
Developers and ultra-high-net-worth buyers are assembling multiple historic townhouses into residences spanning 10,000 to 30,000 square feet.
Billionaire investor Jon Stryker spent more than a decade assembling his estate. Steve Cohen has created a 30,000-square-foot compound in the West Village. WhatsApp co-founder Jan Koum is planning a seven-story residence in SoHo.
These aren't speculative purchases.
They're conviction investments.
People don't spend $50 million to $100 million building a primary residence in a city they believe is declining.
What This Means for Buyers
For buyers between $2 million and $5 million, competition has intensified.
Contracts in this segment are up roughly 20% year over year.
Overpriced listings continue to sit.
Well-priced homes with strong fundamentals—natural light, efficient layouts, premier buildings, and desirable locations—continue to move quickly.
For buyers above $5 million, the pricing floor continues to rise.
Trophy buildings are regularly achieving $4,000 to $4,600 per square foot.
If you're planning to purchase within the next 12 to 18 months, waiting carries its own cost.
The Co-op Market Remains a Different Story
One important distinction remains.
Co-ops are not experiencing the same acceleration as condominiums.
Much of today's demand is concentrated in condos, driven by international buyers, investors, and purchasers seeking flexibility.
Co-ops continue to face structural limitations through board approval requirements and ownership restrictions that make them less attractive to many global buyers.
For owners considering whether to transition from a co-op into a condominium, today's pricing gap makes that conversation increasingly relevant.
The Bottom Line
The conversations happening across Manhattan's luxury market today are fundamentally different than they were a year ago.
There's more confidence.
More urgency.
More buyers making decisions instead of waiting.
The Manhattan luxury condominium market in 2026 continues to reward decisiveness.
Trying to perfectly time the top—or the bottom—often means missing the opportunity altogether.
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