Mortgage rates this week have a crowded calendar to get through. Treasury sells $119 billion of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year debt from Tuesday to Thursday. The Fed's minutes from its September meeting land Wednesday afternoon. Freddie Mac publishes its weekly mortgage survey Thursday, and the last print was 7.28%.
That is a lot of headlines for one week. Here is what I want buyers to take from it: none of those events gets to make your decision for you.
Mortgage rates this week: what is on the calendar
Here is the week in plain terms, from the FinancialMarkets.com Sunday look-ahead and the investingLive and xoomar economic calendars.
- Tuesday: Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes at 1pm ET.
- Wednesday: Treasury reopens the 10-year note with $39 billion around 1pm ET. At 2pm ET, the Fed releases the minutes from its September 15-16 meeting, where it raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00%.
- Thursday: Treasury reopens the 30-year bond with $22 billion around 1pm ET. Freddie Mac's weekly survey also lands Thursday. The last reading, from October 1, put the 30-year fixed average at 7.28%.
There is no consumer price report this week. That comes October 14.
The link between a Treasury auction and mortgage rates is simple. Mortgage rates tend to track longer-term Treasury yields more closely than the Fed's overnight rate. When the long end has to absorb a lot of new supply in a few days, the result shows up in the yields lenders price off. Strong demand at the auctions can help. Weak demand can push the other way. Nobody knows which one we get until the bids come in.
Oil sits in the background too. OPEC+ held November production steady at its October 4 meeting, which keeps energy in every inflation conversation. Backdrop only.
The fear: wait for the Fed, or freeze before 9%
Name it honestly. Two scripts are running this week.
The first one sounds responsible. Wait for the Fed minutes. Wait for Freddie Mac on Thursday. Don't move until the week is over and you know more.
The second one sounds like protection. Rates are headed to 9%, so freeze every deal and sit still until it passes.
I understand both. Rates above 7% hurt. Payments are higher. Some deals stop working. That is real, and I won't pretend otherwise.
Now look at what each script asks you to do. The first one hands your timing to a calendar, and there is always another calendar. CPI lands October 14. Another Freddie print comes the week after. The second one hands your timing to a forecast nobody can make. If someone knew exactly where rates would be in six months, they would not be posting it for free.
I wrote about this when Freddie printed 7.28%: current mortgage rates hit 7.28%, and waiting is not a plan. This week just gives the waiting more excuses.
My Mom bought our childhood home in 1983 at 18%
Here is the number I come back to when a rate headline freezes a room.
My Mom bought our childhood home in 1983 at 18%.
Different wages. Same rule.
18%. Not 7.28%.
I'm not sharing that to say 7.28% is cheap, or that anyone should feel grateful for today's rate. Wages were different. Prices were different. The whole market was different. That is the point of the line. The circumstances change every decade. The rule does not.
The rule: if you can buy, it's a buyers market.
Should I buy a house when mortgage rates are high?
That is the question behind every rate headline this week. Here is how I answer it. This is my opinion, not financial advice.
High rates are an input. They don't tell you to buy, and they don't tell you to stop. The decision sits on three things you control.
- Can you carry the payment at today's rate without stress? Not the rate you hope to refinance into. Today's rate.
- Does the home clear your list? Location, size, and the non-negotiables you wrote down before you started looking.
- Is this a home you plan to stay in? A long-term home is a different decision than a bet on this week's rate.
If all three are yes, the week's headlines are background noise. If any one is no, pass, and pass clean. Either way, you made the decision. The calendar didn't.
Here is my read as a New York and Florida agent, and it is opinion. Weeks like this thin out the crowd. Buyers who were already on the fence step back and wait for Thursday. The buyer who did the work walks into a quieter room. That does not guarantee a better price. It does put you in a better position to negotiate.
If you can buy, it's a buyers market
This is the ask, and it is simple.
If you can buy, act like a buyer this week. Run the payment at 7.28%. Get your financing lined up before Thursday, not after. Know your number before you walk in, and know where you walk away.
Nobody knows if rates climb from here or ease. Not the bond desks. Not the Fed. Not me. What I do know is that waiting for certainty has its own cost, and you don't get that time back.
The best time to buy was 30 years ago. The next best time is the day your numbers work.
Rates are not the only clock running this week. If you own a New York City home and received a Department of Finance letter about the non-primary residence surcharge, the exemption deadline is October 6. I broke down what that letter does and does not mean here: NYC pied-a-terre tax: the Oct 6 deadline is still live. Talk to your CPA or attorney about the filing itself.
The move before Thursday's Freddie Mac print
Before Freddie Mac's mortgage rate lands Thursday, do one thing. Price the monthly payment on the home you actually want at 7.28%, with your real down payment. If it works and the home fits, move this week. If it doesn't, pass without drama and keep your list ready for the next one.
No promise on prices. No promise on rates. Just a decision you own.
The bond market will do what it does this week. You decide what you do. Preparation Creates Freedom.
If you are buying in New York or Florida and want a second set of eyes on the numbers, reach out to my team at nilelundgren.com.
Ready to move on a New York or Florida purchase this week? Call Nile Lundgren at (917) 453-4526 or visit nilelundgren.com.
