Should I buy a house when the Fed won't tip rates? That is the question I expect from ready buyers this weekend. My answer is simple. Silence from the Fed is not a reason to freeze. It is a reason to get clear on your own numbers.
Overnight Thursday into Friday (Friday in Bangkok), Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal what the Fed will do at its October 27-28 meeting. His words, as CNBC reported them: "I don't prejudge meetings." On Friday morning, Bankrate put the 30-year fixed national average at 7.46%, down 0.07 from a week earlier.
Did the Fed chair give any signal on rates this week?
No. Speaking at an IMF event in Bangkok, Warsh said he does not believe in saying now what he might do at the meetings left this year. Axios reported his view that since the September hike, the world has broadly conformed to the Fed's expectations. That is all he gave. I am not going to read more into it than that, and I tell my clients not to either.
CNBC also reported that traders were pricing an 87% chance of a hold at the October meeting, based on the CME FedWatch Tool. That is a market read, not a promise, and it can change.
Here is what I notice when the room gets loud like this. Everyone wants a prediction. Nobody wants to do the homework. The buyers who come out ahead are the ones who stop waiting for someone else to tell them when to move.
What did mortgage rates do on Friday, and what should buyers do now?
On Friday morning, Bankrate's national average for a 30-year fixed was 7.46% as of 6:30 AM ET, down 0.07 points from a week earlier.
That is one survey, and I compare it only to its own history on purpose. Different surveys measure something a little different, and mixing them is how buyers end up confused about what they can actually lock.
I am not telling anyone that rates are headed down. No source I read on Friday says that, and I will not pretend to know. What I can say is that Bankrate's average was a little lower than a week earlier, and that a ready buyer should know their own payment before the next headline moves it.
So this is what I tell a ready buyer:
- Get a real quote from your lender, in writing, on the price range you are shopping.
- Look at the monthly payment, not the headline rate. That is the number you live with.
- Ask your lender how a lock works on their side, how long it lasts, and what it costs to extend.
- Decide what payment you are comfortable with before you fall in love with a home.
None of that requires knowing what the Fed does on October 28.
Should I wait for the Fed meeting to buy a home?
I get why people want to wait. It feels safe. But waiting for a meeting is not a plan. I wrote about that in Waiting Is Not a Plan, and I believe it more on a morning like this one.
If you are ready, meaning your finances are in order, your lender has you approved, and you have found the right home, the meeting date should not be what decides it. The home, the payment, and your life should decide it.
If you are not ready, use the next two weeks to get ready. That is not waiting. That is preparing. Preparation creates freedom, because when the right home shows up you can actually act.
I have coached clients through Fed days before. I laid out how I approach those mornings in Fed Day Client Coaching. The idea has not changed: the client conversation matters more than the headline.
What should sellers know when the Fed gives no signal?
Sellers ask me a different question. They want to know if they should hold out for buyers to feel better.
Here is the honest answer. The headline buyers are reading this weekend still says rates are high. Your buyer feels that every time they look at a payment estimate.
So I tell sellers to price for the buyer who exists now, not the one they hope shows up after a Fed meeting. A buyer who is out looking when the headlines are rough is usually a serious buyer. Treat that person like the gift they are.
How I coach clients when mortgage rates are high
I want to say this part plainly, because it is the part I care about most.
My job is not to predict the Fed. My job is to sit with a client, look at their real numbers, and help them make a decision they will still feel good about years from now. When I do that well, the noise gets quieter for them, and they can see their own situation clearly.
That is what calm looks like in this business. It is not knowing the future. It is knowing your plan.
FAQ
Should I buy a house when the Fed won't signal its next move?
If your finances are ready and you have found the right home, the lack of a Fed signal is not a reason to stop. Focus on your quoted payment and your lender's lock terms. This is my opinion, not lending advice.
What were mortgage rates on Friday, October 16, 2026?
Bankrate's 30-year fixed national average was 7.46% as of 6:30 AM ET. That was down 0.07 from a week earlier.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27-28, 2026.
Does the Fed set mortgage rates?
No. The Fed sets the federal funds rate. Mortgage rates are set by lenders and move with broader markets. You can read more from the Federal Reserve.
Let's talk about your next step
If you are a buyer or seller in New York or Florida and want to look at your real numbers together, reach out to me and The Lundgren Team at SERHANT through nilelundgren.com. Bring your lender quote and your questions. We will build the plan from there.
