Is the housing market going to crash? Not on today's data. It is slow, not crashing: NAR reports September pending home sales down 11.3% from a year ago, yet the median existing-home price rose 1.3%. Nile Lundgren, founder of the Lundgren Team at SERHANT., with $550M in sales, sees negotiating room for buyers and a pricing test for sellers.
If you are deciding whether to buy now or wait in New York or Florida, you can reach Nile Lundgren and the Lundgren Team at SERHANT. here.
Is the housing market going to crash in 2026?
The latest national data shows a slow market, not a crash. Deals have dropped, but prices have not followed them down.
The National Association of REALTORS reports that pending home sales, which count signed contracts, fell 11.3% in September 2026 from a year earlier and 7.3% from August. Contracts fell in all four U.S. regions.
Closed sales tell the same story. NAR's September existing-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, down 2.2% from a year earlier, with sales lower in all four regions. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said August and September were the two slowest months for home sales this year.
Prices did not break. NAR's September median existing-home price was $417,500, up 1.3% from a year ago, the 39th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. A crash is when prices break. Right now, it is the number of deals that has fallen.
Nobody can promise where prices go next, and this post does not try to. What the data shows today is fewer buyers signing contracts, and prices holding.
Sources: NAR Pending Home Sales, Oct 20, 2026 and NAR Existing-Home Sales, Oct 13, 2026
Why are home sales so low if prices aren't falling?
Because buyers have pulled back while few owners are being forced to sell. When nobody has to sell, prices hold even as volume drops.
NAR's chief economist pointed to the same thing. In NAR's pending sales release, Lawrence Yun said "the limited number of distressed properties is ensuring steady home prices."
Nile sees it from his seat in Manhattan. In a message he wrote on October 19, 2026, he put it this way: "In Manhattan, inventory is scarce." On why owners are not rushing to list, in his words: "A lot of people have great rates. Why would they sell?"
Nationally, NAR counted 1.60 million homes for sale in September, equal to 4.8 months' supply. That is supply buyers can work with, not a flood of forced sellers.
For the volume half of this story, see Is the housing market frozen right now?
Will home prices drop in New York or Florida?
National data cannot answer that for one home, and Nile does not call a bottom or a top. What he describes is a market where sellers give a little, not a lot.
On Manhattan, in his words: "it's wealthy person negotiating against wealthy person." On what that means for sellers, in his words: "they're gonna have to take a little bit less."
Florida is a different read, and Nile does not call it strong across the board. In his words: "the Florida condo market is slow right now." On why, he points to rates: "Florida, I think, the condo market's getting hit by that pretty hard."
These are Nile's views from his own message, not statistics. Prices are set building by building and street by street, so read your own market, not a national headline.
If you are buying in New York, you can browse current New York homes for sale with the Lundgren Team at SERHANT.
Should I wait for the housing market to crash before I buy?
Waiting for a crash is a bet on a price drop the national data does not show today. The room for buyers right now is in negotiation.
NAR reports pending home sales, which count signed contracts, down 11.3% from a year ago in September, with declines in all four regions. That is where the room is: sellers who have to meet the market.
Nile's view, in his words: "I feel like the market is softer, but you have to get out there and make a lot of offers."
A buyer who waits for a collapse can watch the right home go to someone else. The buyer who is ready, with funds and financing lined up, and who makes more than one offer gets to use the room that exists. For the rate side of this decision, see Should I buy a house now or wait for rates to drop? For lending specifics, talk to a lender.
What should sellers do if the market is slow?
Price for the buyer who exists today. Slow markets test a price, and the test comes from buyers, not headlines.
Price against the homes that truly compete with yours right now, not against what a neighbor got two years ago or what a crash post predicts. With fewer buyers signing contracts, an overpriced home stands out for the wrong reason.
Expect to give a little. In Nile's words, sellers are "gonna have to take a little bit less." A little less is a negotiation. It is not a crash.
FAQ
What is a pending sale?
A home that has a signed contract but has not closed yet. Pending sales show what buyers are doing now, before closings show up weeks or months later.
Is national housing data the same as my local market?
No. NAR's figures are national, and prices and supply vary by region, neighborhood and building. Use national data for direction and local sales for pricing.
Where does this data come from?
The National Association of REALTORS: its Pending Home Sales report released October 20, 2026 and its Existing-Home Sales report released October 13, 2026, both for September 2026. Nile's views come from his own message of October 19, 2026.
How do I contact Nile Lundgren about buying or selling in a slow market?
Call (917) 453-4526 or use the contact page at nilelundgren.com/contact.
Nile Lundgren, founder of the Lundgren Team at SERHANT., with $550M in sales. Licensed in New York and Florida. Cast member of Netflix's Owning Manhattan.
Call (917) 453-4526 or contact the Lundgren Team at SERHANT. at https://nilelundgren.com/contact
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